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Professionally optimise your betting bank and staking
plan.
One of the quickest ways to disaster is to be ignorant about
losing sequences. They can occur at any time without warning, and they can quickly
devastate a betting bank if it is of insufficient size to absorb them.
First of all, how do we know what the length of these losing
sequences is likely to be? Well actually, that is easy to predict provided we
have a fairly accurate idea of our strike rate. Sequences are directly related
to strike rate, and we can mathematically determine the likelihood of specific
sequences appearing, provided we know what percentage of the bets in a series
are going to win.
We can then use this criteria to set up our betting bank
and determine how we are going to stake from it. My view is that the size of
the opening bank should equal the longest losing sequence we are ever likely
to encounter, multiplied by our maximum stake.
To illustrate, I have produced the table below, which I have
used to determine the staking strategy for my private service in 2005. I advise
two bets per day (Monday to Saturday) so I will be preparing in the region of
624 bets during the year (12 per week for 52 weeks). Taking into account the
area of the betting market in which I intend to operate, I estimate that my
strike rate will be a minimum of 40%.
Please note at this stage that there are no 'good' or 'bad'
strike rates - they are all purely relative to the price range you decide to
target - please refer to my article How Many Winners? in conjunction with this procedure (it will open in a new
window).
We can see from the table below that, with a 40% strike rate,
I can expect to have a losing sequence of 10 somewhere in my series of 624 (there
is a 75% chance of that happening). However, there is a 50% chance of my hitting
a losing sequence of 12 during the year, and a 25% chance of a run of 14 consecutive
losers. That sequence of 14 is obviously less than likely to occur, but it will
still happen, on average, once in every four years.
Finally, from the table we can also see that, with a lower
than 1% chance, I am likely to confront a losing sequence of 20 once in a lifetime
at the most. However, that is the figure I have used to determine my staking
plan. If you are to operate as a professional that is what you must do too.
Using the formula I mentioned earlier, I have multiplied
the longest losing sequence I am ever likely to encounter (20) by my maximum
stake (which is 5 points) to give me a starting bank for 2005 of 100 points.
Please don't make the common mistake of thinking these sequences
won't happen to you. They are mathematically determined by your strike rate
and will happen as often as they are entitled to, whether you like it or not.
Nobody can avoid them but the difference between a professional and an amateur
is that the professional is fully prepared for them. When they do occur it certainly
doesn't mean that you are 'out of form' or doing anything wrong.
Once you have anticipated your minimum strike rate you will
be able to use the table to optimise your own staking structure for 2005 and
beyond.
Provided the average price of your winners is sufficient
for your strike rate, as explained in How Many Winners?, and your bank is set up to account for these sequences
then you will never have a problem. You will be well on your way to securing
a lucrative future in a professional way.
Steve Jones
www.cdsystems.uk.com
Please note: The table is based on a series
of between 600 and 650 bets. A shorter series would be less likely to contain
sequences as long as these and a longer series would be more likely.
|
Strike Rate
(%) |
Anticipation of losing sequences
in a series of 600-650 bets |
|
Expected
(75% chance) |
50:50
(50% chance) |
Unlikely
(25% chance) |
Very Unlikely
(<1% chance) |
| 3 |
83 |
105 |
132 |
235 |
| 4 |
69 |
86 |
106 |
185 |
| 5 |
59 |
73 |
90 |
153 |
| 6 |
52 |
64 |
78 |
130 |
| 7 |
46 |
57 |
68 |
113 |
| 8 |
42 |
51 |
61 |
101 |
| 9 |
38 |
47 |
56 |
91 |
| 10 |
35 |
43 |
51 |
82 |
| 11 |
33 |
40 |
47 |
75 |
| 12 |
30 |
37 |
44 |
69 |
| 13 |
29 |
34 |
41 |
64 |
| 14 |
27 |
32 |
38 |
60 |
| 15 |
25 |
30 |
36 |
56 |
| 16 |
24 |
29 |
34 |
53 |
| 17 |
23 |
27 |
32 |
50 |
| 18 |
22 |
26 |
30 |
47 |
| 19 |
21 |
25 |
29 |
45 |
| 20 |
20 |
24 |
28 |
42 |
| 21 |
19 |
23 |
26 |
40 |
| 22 |
18 |
22 |
25 |
39 |
| 23 |
17 |
21 |
24 |
37 |
| 24 |
17 |
20 |
23 |
35 |
| 25 |
16 |
19 |
22 |
34 |
| 26 |
15 |
19 |
21 |
33 |
| 27 |
15 |
18 |
21 |
31 |
| 28 |
14 |
17 |
20 |
30 |
| 29 |
14 |
17 |
19 |
29 |
| 30 |
13 |
16 |
19 |
28 |
| 31 |
13 |
16 |
18 |
27 |
| 32 |
12 |
15 |
17 |
26 |
| 33 |
12 |
15 |
17 |
25 |
| 34 |
12 |
14 |
16 |
24 |
| 35 |
11 |
14 |
16 |
24 |
| 36 |
11 |
13 |
15 |
23 |
| 37 |
11 |
13 |
15 |
22 |
| 38 |
10 |
13 |
15 |
21 |
| 39 |
10 |
12 |
14 |
21 |
| 40 |
10 |
12 |
14 |
20 |
| 41 |
9 |
12 |
13 |
20 |
| 42 |
9 |
11 |
13 |
19 |
| 43 |
9 |
11 |
13 |
19 |
| 44 |
9 |
11 |
12 |
18 |
| 45 |
8 |
11 |
12 |
18 |
| 46 |
8 |
10 |
12 |
17 |
| 47 |
8 |
10 |
11 |
17 |
| 48 |
8 |
10 |
11 |
16 |
| 49 |
8 |
10 |
11 |
16 |
| 50 |
7 |
9 |
11 |
15 |
| 51 |
7 |
9 |
10 |
15 |
| 52 |
7 |
9 |
10 |
15 |
| 53 |
7 |
9 |
10 |
14 |
| 54 |
7 |
8 |
10 |
14 |
| 55 |
6 |
8 |
9 |
14 |
| 56 |
6 |
8 |
9 |
13 |
| 57 |
6 |
8 |
9 |
13 |
| 58 |
6 |
8 |
9 |
13 |
| 59 |
6 |
8 |
9 |
12 |
| 60 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
12 |
| 61 |
5 |
7 |
8 |
12 |
| 62 |
5 |
7 |
8 |
11 |
| 63 |
5 |
7 |
8 |
11 |
| 64 |
5 |
7 |
8 |
11 |
| 65 |
5 |
7 |
7 |
11 |
| 66 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
10 |
| 67 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
10 |
| 68 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
10 |
| 69 |
4 |
6 |
7 |
10 |
| 70 |
4 |
6 |
7 |
9 |
| 71 |
4 |
6 |
6 |
9 |
| 72 |
4 |
6 |
6 |
9 |
| 73 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
9 |
| 74 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
8 |
| 75 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
8 |
| 76 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
8 |
| 77 |
3 |
5 |
6 |
8 |
| 78 |
3 |
5 |
5 |
8 |
| 79 |
3 |
5 |
5 |
7 |
| 80 |
3 |
5 |
5 |
7 |
| 81 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
7 |
| 82 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
7 |
| 83 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
7 |
| 84 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
| 85 |
3 |
4 |
4 |
6 |
| 86 |
3 |
4 |
4 |
6 |
| 87 |
2 |
4 |
4 |
6 |
| 88 |
2 |
4 |
4 |
6 |
| 89 |
2 |
4 |
4 |
5 |
| 90 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
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