Bet Staking for Losing Runs

Professionally optimise your betting bank and staking plan.

 

One of the quickest ways to disaster is to be ignorant about losing sequences. They can occur at any time without warning, and they can quickly devastate a betting bank if it is of insufficient size to absorb them.

 

First of all, how do we know what the length of these losing sequences is likely to be? Well actually, that is easy to predict provided we have a fairly accurate idea of our strike rate. Sequences are directly related to strike rate, and we can mathematically determine the likelihood of specific sequences appearing, provided we know what percentage of the bets in a series are going to win.

 

We can then use this criteria to set up our betting bank and determine how we are going to stake from it. My view is that the size of the opening bank should equal the longest losing sequence we are ever likely to encounter, multiplied by our maximum stake.

 

To illustrate, I have produced the table below, which I have used to determine the staking strategy for my private service in 2005. I advise two bets per day (Monday to Saturday) so I will be preparing in the region of 624 bets during the year (12 per week for 52 weeks). Taking into account the area of the betting market in which I intend to operate, I estimate that my strike rate will be a minimum of 40%.

 

Please note at this stage that there are no 'good' or 'bad' strike rates - they are all purely relative to the price range you decide to target - please refer to my article How Many Winners? in conjunction with this procedure (it will open in a new window).

 

We can see from the table below that, with a 40% strike rate, I can expect to have a losing sequence of 10 somewhere in my series of 624 (there is a 75% chance of that happening). However, there is a 50% chance of my hitting a losing sequence of 12 during the year, and a 25% chance of a run of 14 consecutive losers. That sequence of 14 is obviously less than likely to occur, but it will still happen, on average, once in every four years.

 

Finally, from the table we can also see that, with a lower than 1% chance, I am likely to confront a losing sequence of 20 once in a lifetime at the most. However, that is the figure I have used to determine my staking plan. If you are to operate as a professional that is what you must do too.

 

Using the formula I mentioned earlier, I have multiplied the longest losing sequence I am ever likely to encounter (20) by my maximum stake (which is 5 points) to give me a starting bank for 2005 of 100 points.

 

Please don't make the common mistake of thinking these sequences won't happen to you. They are mathematically determined by your strike rate and will happen as often as they are entitled to, whether you like it or not. Nobody can avoid them but the difference between a professional and an amateur is that the professional is fully prepared for them. When they do occur it certainly doesn't mean that you are 'out of form' or doing anything wrong.

 

Once you have anticipated your minimum strike rate you will be able to use the table to optimise your own staking structure for 2005 and beyond.

 

Provided the average price of your winners is sufficient for your strike rate, as explained in How Many Winners?, and your bank is set up to account for these sequences then you will never have a problem. You will be well on your way to securing a lucrative future in a professional way.

 

Steve Jones

www.cdsystems.uk.com

 

Please note: The table is based on a series of between 600 and 650 bets. A shorter series would be less likely to contain sequences as long as these and a longer series would be more likely.

Strike Rate

(%)

Anticipation of losing sequences in a series of 600-650 bets

Expected

(75% chance)

50:50

(50% chance)

Unlikely

(25% chance)

Very Unlikely

(<1% chance)

3 83 105 132 235
4 69 86 106 185
5 59 73 90 153
6 52 64 78 130
7 46 57 68 113
8 42 51 61 101
9 38 47 56 91
10 35 43 51 82
11 33 40 47 75
12 30 37 44 69
13 29 34 41 64
14 27 32 38 60
15 25 30 36 56
16 24 29 34 53
17 23 27 32 50
18 22 26 30 47
19 21 25 29 45
20 20 24 28 42
21 19 23 26 40
22 18 22 25 39
23 17 21 24 37
24 17 20 23 35
25 16 19 22 34
26 15 19 21 33
27 15 18 21 31
28 14 17 20 30
29 14 17 19 29
30 13 16 19 28
31 13 16 18 27
32 12 15 17 26
33 12 15 17 25
34 12 14 16 24
35 11 14 16 24
36 11 13 15 23
37 11 13 15 22
38 10 13 15 21
39 10 12 14 21
40 10 12 14 20
41 9 12 13 20
42 9 11 13 19
43 9 11 13 19
44 9 11 12 18
45 8 11 12 18
46 8 10 12 17
47 8 10 11 17
48 8 10 11 16
49 8 10 11 16
50 7 9 11 15
51 7 9 10 15
52 7 9 10 15
53 7 9 10 14
54 7 8 10 14
55 6 8 9 14
56 6 8 9 13
57 6 8 9 13
58 6 8 9 13
59 6 8 9 12
60 6 7 8 12
61 5 7 8 12
62 5 7 8 11
63 5 7 8 11
64 5 7 8 11
65 5 7 7 11
66 5 6 7 10
67 5 6 7 10
68 5 6 7 10
69 4 6 7 10
70 4 6 7 9
71 4 6 6 9
72 4 6 6 9
73 4 5 6 9
74 4 5 6 8
75 4 5 6 8
76 4 5 6 8
77 3 5 6 8
78 3 5 5 8
79 3 5 5 7
80 3 5 5 7
81 3 4 5 7
82 3 4 5 7
83 3 4 5 7
84 3 4 5 6
85 3 4 4 6
86 3 4 4 6
87 2 4 4 6
88 2 4 4 6
89 2 4 4 5
90 2 3 4 5

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