Is it Better to Bet Singles or Doubles ?

My general advice to a standard punter would be avoing betting doubles and accumulator bets .. stick to singles.

The reason for this would be that if we assume they are betting on selections which have an edge in the bookmakers favor, then this bookmakers edge is multiplied up by combining the selections in a double.

Assume 1000 bets with a greater bookmakers margin and everything points to the punter having less in his bank at the end of 1000 bets if betting on higher bookmaker margin events.

Take the following imaginary example which shows how doubling poor odds swings the edge more in the bookies favor.

say there is horse running with a price of 4/1
The true odds of that horse are 5/1

Simple maths would say that at true odds of 5/1, every 6th horse would be a winner thus over 1000 bets there would be 1000 / 6 = 166.67 winners.

total returned = stake of 166.67 plus winnings of 166.67 * 4
= 833.3

ie a loss on turnover of 166.67 points.


Now what happens if we put the same horses into a double?

The true odds of a double are 35/1

ie 1 in 36 doubles will win or 1000/36 = 27.78 winners per 1000 bets.

each winning double will return (1+4)*(1+4) = 25
ie odds of 24/1

again for 1000 bets
total returned = stake of 27.78 plus winnings of 27.78 * 24
=138.89

ie a loss of 861.1 points.


With beer to buy or a mortage to pay..which punter would you rather be?

 

Bearing the above in mind is it any wonder you see bookmaker shop windows pushing bets such as soccer first goal scorer / correct score doubles.

Not only do they want the mug punter to bet on high margin events, they want him to take two such events and double them thus giving the bookmaker even greater long term advantage.

It is the same reason why many bookmakers used to state minimum trebles on soccer coupons.
( gladly a dwindling trend due to increased competition)


One other obvious factor from the above example is strike rate.
Strike rate is much lower and most mug punters would take little hedance to this in terms of betting bank managment.

All that said the opposite is true if you have the ability to find value in your selections.

If you have two prices with and edge in your favor, doubling such bets should give you a higher theoretical edge to your bets.
The principle simply works in reverse.

Take care however to examine strike rates from within the view of an overall betting bank.
You will have to stake less per bet than you would do with singles

www.free-bet.co.uk Online Bookmakers Guide

Back

Add an Article

 




Bookmakers Guide | Free Bets | Betting Message Board | Betting Links